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Levski Karlovo vs Minyor Radnevo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
FT
1 – 0
Minyor Radnevo
Minyor Radnevo
12/2/2018Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 17Stadion Vasil Levski (Karlovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Levski Karlovo41%
×Draw28%
Minyor Radnevo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Karlovo
1.27
Minyor Radnevo
1.06

Levski Karlovo creates 20% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 27 away

creates per match

Levski Karlovo
1.51
Minyor Radnevo
1.00

allows per match

Levski Karlovo
1.13
Minyor Radnevo
1.04

finishing

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par
Minyor Radnevo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Karlovo ↓

Minyor Radnevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Levski Karlovo or draw
69%
Levski Karlovo or Minyor Radnevo
72%
Draw or Minyor Radnevo
59%

Winning margin

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
18%
Minyor Radnevo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
72%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
36%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
14%
Minyor Radnevo 1+ goals
65%
Minyor Radnevo 2+ goals
29%
Minyor Radnevo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
57%
Minyor Radnevo (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Karlovo at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Minyor Radnevo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Karlovo attack 1.51 + Minyor Radnevo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Minyor Radnevo attack 1.00 + Levski Karlovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Levski Karlovo scores more
41%
level
28%
Minyor Radnevo scores more
31%

Levski Karlovo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Levski Karlovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Karlovo vs Minyor Radnevo

Levski Karlovo beat Minyor Radnevo 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on December 2, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski (Karlovo).