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Minyor Radnevo vs Gigant Saedinenie — Third League - Southeast 2018

Minyor Radnevo
Minyor Radnevo
CANC
00:00
Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
3/14/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 21Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Minyor Radnevo57%
×Draw25%
Gigant Saedinenie18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minyor Radnevo
1.64
Gigant Saedinenie
0.80

Minyor Radnevo creates 105% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 136 away

creates per match

Minyor Radnevo
1.85
Gigant Saedinenie
1.17

allows per match

Minyor Radnevo
0.44
Gigant Saedinenie
1.42

finishing

Minyor Radnevo+0.00on par
Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minyor Radnevo ↓

Gigant Saedinenie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Minyor Radnevo or draw
82%
Minyor Radnevo or Gigant Saedinenie
75%
Draw or Gigant Saedinenie
43%

Winning margin

Minyor Radnevo wins by 2+
31%
Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Minyor Radnevo 1+ goals
81%
Minyor Radnevo 2+ goals
49%
Minyor Radnevo 3+ goals
23%
Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
55%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
19%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Minyor Radnevo (draw refunded)
76%
Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minyor Radnevo at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.44 · 27 matches

Gigant Saedinenie away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minyor Radnevo attack 1.85 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.64

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.17 + Minyor Radnevo defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Minyor Radnevo scores more
57%
level
25%
Gigant Saedinenie scores more
18%

Minyor Radnevo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Minyor Radnevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Minyor Radnevo face Gigant Saedinenie (Third League - Southeast)

Third League - Southeast returns with Minyor Radnevo hosting Gigant Saedinenie. Match starts March 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Minyor Radnevo host Gigant Saedinenie at Stadion Minyor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.