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Gigant Saedinenie vs Minyor Radnevo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
FT
2 – 0
Minyor Radnevo
Minyor Radnevo
8/24/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 4Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Gigant Saedinenie50%
×Draw27%
Minyor Radnevo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gigant Saedinenie
1.44
Minyor Radnevo
0.87

Gigant Saedinenie creates 66% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 27 away

creates per match

Gigant Saedinenie
1.83
Minyor Radnevo
1.00

allows per match

Gigant Saedinenie
0.74
Minyor Radnevo
1.04

finishing

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par
Minyor Radnevo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gigant Saedinenie ↓

Minyor Radnevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gigant Saedinenie or draw
77%
Gigant Saedinenie or Minyor Radnevo
73%
Draw or Minyor Radnevo
50%

Winning margin

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
25%
Minyor Radnevo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
76%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
42%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
18%
Minyor Radnevo 1+ goals
58%
Minyor Radnevo 2+ goals
22%
Minyor Radnevo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
69%
Minyor Radnevo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gigant Saedinenie at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.74 · 135 matches

Minyor Radnevo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.83 + Minyor Radnevo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.44

Minyor Radnevo attack 1.00 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gigant Saedinenie scores more
50%
level
27%
Minyor Radnevo scores more
23%

Gigant Saedinenie at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gigant Saedinenie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gigant Saedinenie vs Minyor Radnevo

Gigant Saedinenie beat Minyor Radnevo 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Saedinenie.