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Minsk W vs LSK Kvinner W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Minsk W
Minsk W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
LSK Kvinner W
LSK Kvinner W
12/9/2020UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 16th FinalsStadion FK Minsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Minsk W35%
×Draw26%
LSK Kvinner W39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minsk W
1.33
LSK Kvinner W
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Minsk W
2.00
LSK Kvinner W
1.00

allows per match

Minsk W
1.83
LSK Kvinner W
0.67

finishing

Minsk W+0.00on par
LSK Kvinner W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minsk W ↓

LSK Kvinner W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Minsk W or draw
61%
Minsk W or LSK Kvinner W
74%
Draw or LSK Kvinner W
65%

Winning margin

Minsk W wins by 2+
16%
LSK Kvinner W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Minsk W 1+ goals
74%
Minsk W 2+ goals
38%
Minsk W 3+ goals
15%
LSK Kvinner W 1+ goals
76%
LSK Kvinner W 2+ goals
41%
LSK Kvinner W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Minsk W (draw refunded)
47%
LSK Kvinner W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minsk W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

LSK Kvinner W away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minsk W attack 2.00 + LSK Kvinner W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

LSK Kvinner W attack 1.00 + Minsk W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Minsk W scores more
35%
level
26%
LSK Kvinner W scores more
39%

LSK Kvinner W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "LSK Kvinner W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Minsk W vs LSK Kvinner W

LSK Kvinner W beat Minsk W 2-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on December 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Minsk in Minsk.