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LSK Kvinner W vs Minsk W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

LSK Kvinner W
LSK Kvinner W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Minsk W
Minsk W
12/16/2020UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 16th FinalsÅråsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

LSK Kvinner W46%
×Draw23%
Minsk W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LSK Kvinner W
1.75
Minsk W
1.40

LSK Kvinner W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

LSK Kvinner W
1.50
Minsk W
1.29

allows per match

LSK Kvinner W
1.50
Minsk W
2.00

finishing

LSK Kvinner W+0.00on par
Minsk W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LSK Kvinner W ↓

Minsk W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

LSK Kvinner W or draw
69%
LSK Kvinner W or Minsk W
77%
Draw or Minsk W
54%

Winning margin

LSK Kvinner W wins by 2+
24%
Minsk W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

LSK Kvinner W 1+ goals
83%
LSK Kvinner W 2+ goals
52%
LSK Kvinner W 3+ goals
25%
Minsk W 1+ goals
75%
Minsk W 2+ goals
41%
Minsk W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

LSK Kvinner W (draw refunded)
60%
Minsk W (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LSK Kvinner W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Minsk W away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LSK Kvinner W attack 1.50 + Minsk W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Minsk W attack 1.29 + LSK Kvinner W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

LSK Kvinner W scores more
46%
level
23%
Minsk W scores more
31%

LSK Kvinner W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "LSK Kvinner W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: LSK Kvinner W 0–1 Minsk W

Minsk W beat LSK Kvinner W 1-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on December 16, 2020.

The match was played at Åråsen Stadion in Kjeller.