Minsk U19 1–1 Hajduk Split U19: Result & Stats

Minsk U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hajduk Split U19

D. Knyazev 45'

F. Čuić 72'

11/24/2021

UEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundStadion FK Minsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Minsk U1933%

×Draw28%

Hajduk Split U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Minsk U19Expected goals in this matchHajduk Split U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.20

Minsk U19

1.10

Hajduk Split U19

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

0.80

creates per match

1.60

0.80

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Minsk U19

0.80

Hajduk Split U19

1.60

allows per match

Minsk U19

0.80

Hajduk Split U19

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minsk U19+0.00on par

Hajduk Split U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minsk U19 ↓

Hajduk Split U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Minsk U19 or draw

62%

Minsk U19 or Hajduk Split U19

72%

Draw or Hajduk Split U19

67%

Winning margin

Minsk U19 wins by 2+

13%

Hajduk Split U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Minsk U19 1+ goals

67%

Minsk U19 2+ goals

30%

Minsk U19 3+ goals

10%

Hajduk Split U19 1+ goals

70%

Hajduk Split U19 2+ goals

34%

Hajduk Split U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Minsk U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Hajduk Split U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minsk U19 at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Hajduk Split U19 away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minsk U19 attack 0.80 + Hajduk Split U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.10

Hajduk Split U19 attack 1.60 + Minsk U19 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Minsk U19 scores more

33%

level

28%

Hajduk Split U19 scores more

38%

Hajduk Split U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hajduk Split U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

V. Dzikhtsiyeuski

43'

45'

46'

72'

76'

I. Grudko← E. Malashevich

78'

J. Vrcić← M. Brkljača

79'

A. Zhevnerenko← D. Dushevskiy

81'

I. Dominić← Š. Hrgović

84'

I. Tikhomirov← D. Knyazev

85'

B. Vetoshkin← V. Dikhtievskiy

85'

P. Ivashin← S. Olkhovskiy

90'

S. Vladušić← E. Letaj

90'

L. Petrović← F. Čuić

Minsk

Hajduk

1

Silić

5

Škaričić

3

▼

Letaj

29

Bradarić

14

▼

Hrgović

10

▼

23

19

8

24

▼

Lazar

9

⚽

▼

Čuić

1

Dronevich

17

Yakushevi

10

▼

Malashevi

19

▼

Olkhovski

2

▼

Dikhtievs

12

Tarabesh

8

Kuznetsov

15

⚽

▼

Knyazev

20

Tumanov

5

▼

Dushevski

11

Pranovich

Manager: V. Andrievskiy

76'▲I. Grudko←▼E. Malashevich

79'▲A. Zhevnerenko←▼D. Dushevskiy

84'▲I. Tikhomirov←▼D. Knyazev

85'▲B. Vetoshkin←▼V. Dikhtievskiy

85'▲P. Ivashin←▼S. Olkhovskiy

Minsk U19 substitutes

30Grudko14Zhevnerenko18Tikhomirov4Vetoshkin9Ivashin16Boldysh77Antonovich

Manager: M. Budimir

46'▲R. Pukstas←▼F. Lazar

78'▲J. Vrcić←▼M. Brkljača

81'▲I. Dominić←▼Š. Hrgović

90'▲S. Vladušić←▼E. Letaj

90'▲L. Petrović←▼F. Čuić

Hajduk Split U19 substitutes

16Pukstas30Vrcić18Dominić6Vladušić11Petrović12Mišević22Posinković