Hajduk Split U19 3–0 Minsk U19: Result & Stats

Hajduk Split U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Minsk U19

F. Čuić 60', 44'

Š. Hrgović 31'

11/3/2021

UEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundStadion Poljud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hajduk Split U1968%

×Draw16%

Minsk U1915%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hajduk Split U19Expected goals in this matchMinsk U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.79

1.28

Hajduk Split U19

2.79

Minsk U19

1.28

Hajduk Split U19 creates 118% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.57

creates per match

2.00

0.57

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Hajduk Split U19

2.57

Minsk U19

2.00

allows per match

Hajduk Split U19

0.57

Minsk U19

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hajduk Split U19+0.00on par

Minsk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk Split U19 ↓

Minsk U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Hajduk Split U19 or draw

85%

Hajduk Split U19 or Minsk U19

84%

Draw or Minsk U19

32%

Winning margin

Hajduk Split U19 wins by 2+

48%

Minsk U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Hajduk Split U19 1+ goals

94%

Hajduk Split U19 2+ goals

76%

Hajduk Split U19 3+ goals

52%

Minsk U19 1+ goals

72%

Minsk U19 2+ goals

37%

Minsk U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hajduk Split U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Minsk U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk Split U19 at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Minsk U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk Split U19 attack 2.57 + Minsk U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.79

Minsk U19 attack 2.00 + Hajduk Split U19 defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Hajduk Split U19 scores more

68%

level

16%

Minsk U19 scores more

15%

Hajduk Split U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Hajduk Split U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

I. Dominic

31'

37'

40'

44'

46'

46'

46'

L. Posinković← L. Škaričić

56'

S. Alkhouski

60'

F. Čuić

67'

J. Vrcić← R. Pukstas

73'

A. Zhevnerenko← S. Olkhovskiy

77'

I. Krolo

87'

M. Antunović← F. Čuić

88'

J. Kuzniatsou

90+5'

I. Tikhomirov← G. Yakushevich

Hajduk

Minsk

1

Dronevich

7

Lutskiy

17

▼

Yakushevi

10

Malashevi

19

▼

2

12

8

20

5

11

1

5

▼

Škaričić

6

Vladušić

14

⚽

Hrgović

18

▼

Dominić

16

▼

10

23

19

24

▼

Lazar

9

⚽2

▼

Čuić

Manager: M. Budimir

46'▲E. Letaj←▼I. Dominić

46'▲M. Capan←▼F. Lazar

46'▲L. Posinković←▼L. Škaričić

67'▲J. Vrcić←▼R. Pukstas

87'▲M. Antunović←▼F. Čuić

Hajduk Split U19 substitutes

3Letaj8Capan22Posinković30Vrcić7Antunović12Mišević29Bradarić

Manager: V. Andrievskiy

73'▲A. Zhevnerenko←▼S. Olkhovskiy

90+5'▲I. Tikhomirov←▼G. Yakushevich

Minsk U19 substitutes

14Zhevnerenko18Tikhomirov4Vetoshkin9Ivashin16Boldysh30Chekurishvili33Baklanov

UEFA Youth League: Hajduk Split U19 3–0 Minsk U19

Hajduk Split U19 beat Minsk U19 3-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 3, 2021.

Goals: Š. Hrgović (31'), F. Čuić (44', 60').

The match was played at Stadion Poljud in Split.

Hajduk Split U19 vs Minsk U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Hajduk Split U19 3–0 Minsk U19