Minsk U19 vs Derby County U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Minsk U1936%
Derby County U1936%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 5 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Minsk U19 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Minsk U19 at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches
Derby County U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Minsk U19 attack 0.80 + Derby County U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.23
Derby County U19 attack 1.67 + Minsk U19 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.23
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
Minsk U19 at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "Minsk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Club Brugge U19
Real Madrid U19
Benfica U19
PSG U19
Villarreal U19
Sporting CP U19
Chelsea U19
Internazionale U19
Atlético Madrid U19
Athletic U19
Barcelona U19
Manchester City U19
AZ U19
Dinamo Tbilisi U19
HJK U19
Real Betis U19
Tottenham Hotspur U19
Legia Warszawa U19
Maccabi Haifa U19
Borussia Dortmund U19
Ajax U19
Köln U19
Dinamo Minsk U19
Dynamo Kyiv U19
Liverpool U19
Bayer Leverkusen U19
Monaco U19
PSV U19
FCSB U19
Shelbourne U19
Eintracht Frankf U19
Žilina U19
Slavia Praha U19
Skënderbeu U19
Genk U19
Midtjylland U19
Crvena Zvezda U18
København U19
Olympique Marseille U19
Olympiakos Piraeus U19
Nantes U19
PAOK U19
Porto U19
Napoli U19
Lincoln Red Imps U19
Budućnost U19
Aston Villa U19
Juventus U19
Puskás Akadémia U19
Hibernian U19
Akureyri U19
Bayern München U19
Kairat U19
Atalanta U19
Pafos U19
R. Union SG U19
Galatasaray U18
Larne U19
Basel U19
Ludogorets U19
Fiorentina U19
Narva U19
2 Korriku U19
Racing Union U19
Arsenal U19
Vikingur U19
Brann U19
Trabzonspor U19
FS Jelgava U19
Austria Wien U19
Ordabasy U19
Baník Ostrava U19
Zrinjski U19
Be1 U19
Lokomotiva Zagreb U19
Haverfordwest U19
Brommapojkarna U19
AEK Larnaca U19
Naxxar U19
Sabah U19
Bravo U19
Newcastle United U19
Rabotnički U19
Inter Escaldes U19
Bodø / Glimt U19
Qarabağ U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Minsk U19 host Derby County U19 on Wednesday, 2 October 2019 at 13:00. The match is part of the UEFA Youth League 2018/2019 season.
UEFA Youth League: Minsk U19 0–2 Derby County U19
Derby County U19 beat Minsk U19 2-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 2, 2019.
Goals: M. Whittaker (22' pen, 88').
The match was played at Stadion FK Minsk in Minsk.