Derby County U19 7–2 Minsk U19: Result & Stats

Derby County U19

FT

7 – 2

HT: 5 – 0

Minsk U19

J. Stretton 77' (pen), 40', 16'

M. Whittaker 72', 27'

A. Brown 26', 4'

I. Vorobjev 65'

G. Zherdev 48'

10/22/2019

UEFA Youth League · 1st RoundLoughborough University Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Derby County U1974%

×Draw13%

Minsk U1913%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Derby County U19Expected goals in this matchMinsk U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.83

1.67

Derby County U19

3.83

Minsk U19

1.67

Derby County U19 creates 129% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

4.67

creates per match

2.00

1.33

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Derby County U19

4.67

Minsk U19

2.00

allows per match

Derby County U19

1.33

Minsk U19

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Derby County U19+0.00on par

Minsk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby County U19 ↓

Minsk U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–17%

4–26%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

78%22%4.5

60%40%

Double chance

Derby County U19 or draw

87%

Derby County U19 or Minsk U19

87%

Draw or Minsk U19

26%

Winning margin

Derby County U19 wins by 2+

56%

Minsk U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Derby County U19 1+ goals

98%

Derby County U19 2+ goals

88%

Derby County U19 3+ goals

71%

Minsk U19 1+ goals

81%

Minsk U19 2+ goals

50%

Minsk U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Derby County U19 (draw refunded)

85%

Minsk U19 (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby County U19 at home — creates 4.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Minsk U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby County U19 attack 4.67 + Minsk U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.83

Minsk U19 attack 2.00 + Derby County U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Derby County U19 scores more

74%

level

13%

Minsk U19 scores more

13%

Derby County U19 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Derby County U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

16'

26'

27'

40'

46'

S. Penchuk← P. Seleznev

46'

I. Vorobjev← I. Shavel

48'

G. Zherdev

51'

O. Aghatise← L. Thompson

65'

I. Vorobjev

66'

J. Charles← E. Cashin

72'

S. Kanash← T. Adamchik

72'

M. Whittaker

77'

J. StrettonPenalty

79'

E. Nto← L. Sibley

80'

A. Matthews← M. Whittaker

88'

O. Plyut← G. Zherdev

88'

E. Nikiporenok← P. Gorbach

Derby

Minsk

1

Minkevich

2

▼

18

23

12

66

⚽

▼

Zherdev

5

▼

Seleznev

13

Kondratov

6

▼

Adamchik

10

▼

8

1

2

6

▼

Cashin

11

⚽2

Brown

3

Brown

5

Minkley

10

▼

Sibley

4

▼

Thompson

8

⚽2

▼

Whittaker

9

⚽3

Stretton

7

Ebosele

Manager: J. Walker

51'▲O. Aghatise←▼L. Thompson

66'▲J. Charles←▼E. Cashin

79'▲E. Nto←▼L. Sibley

80'▲A. Matthews←▼M. Whittaker

Derby County U19 substitutes

17Aghatise14Charles12Nto15Matthews13Halwax16Bardell18Rogers

Manager: S. Shchuka

46'▲S. Penchuk←▼P. Seleznev

46'▲I. Vorobjev←▼I. Shavel

72'▲S. Kanash←▼T. Adamchik

88'▲O. Plyut←▼G. Zherdev

88'▲E. Nikiporenok←▼P. Gorbach

Minsk U19 substitutes

7Penchuk33Vorobjev22Kanash9Plyut11Nikiporenok16Perov21Dronevich