Minsk II 2–1 Lokomotiv Gomel: Result & Stats

Minsk II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lokomotiv Gomel

V. Mikhalevich 78'

S. Melnik 65'

I. Zhestkin 73' (pen)

6/21/2014

1. Division · Round 11KFP Minsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Minsk II33%

×Draw27%

Lokomotiv Gomel40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Minsk IIExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Gomel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.36

Minsk II

1.21

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.36

Lokomotiv Gomel creates 12% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 23 away

1.11

creates per match

1.09

1.64

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Minsk II

1.11

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.09

allows per match

Minsk II

1.64

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minsk II+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Gomel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minsk II ↓

Lokomotiv Gomel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Minsk II or draw

60%

Minsk II or Lokomotiv Gomel

73%

Draw or Lokomotiv Gomel

67%

Winning margin

Minsk II wins by 2+

14%

Lokomotiv Gomel wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Minsk II 1+ goals

70%

Minsk II 2+ goals

34%

Minsk II 3+ goals

12%

Lokomotiv Gomel 1+ goals

74%

Lokomotiv Gomel 2+ goals

39%

Lokomotiv Gomel 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Minsk II (draw refunded)

45%

Lokomotiv Gomel (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minsk II at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.64 · 28 matches

Lokomotiv Gomel away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minsk II attack 1.11 + Lokomotiv Gomel defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lokomotiv Gomel attack 1.09 + Minsk II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Minsk II scores more

33%

level

27%

Lokomotiv Gomel scores more

40%

Lokomotiv Gomel at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lokomotiv Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

I. Fedorenko← N. Zagvozdin

65'

S. Melnik

67'

S. Khmelev← A. Lavrenchuk

73'

I. ZhestkinPenalty

76'

V. Mikhalevich← A. Gurenko

78'

V. Mikhalevich

81'

P. Dimitrov← A. Boyko

90'

A. Naumik← E. Belyavski

90'

M. Yakutsenya← O. Evdokimov

Minsk

Lokomotiv

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

76'▲V. Mikhalevich←▼A. Gurenko

90'▲A. Naumik←▼E. Belyavski

90'▲M. Yakutsenya←▼O. Evdokimov

Minsk II substitutes

MikhalevichNaumikYakutsenya

46'▲I. Fedorenko←▼N. Zagvozdin

67'▲S. Khmelev←▼A. Lavrenchuk

81'▲P. Dimitrov←▼A. Boyko

Lokomotiv Gomel substitutes

FedorenkoKhmelevDimitrov