Lokomotiv Gomel 0–4 Minsk II: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Gomel

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Minsk II

S. Koshel 82' (pen), 78'

F. Sapon 73', 48'

10/25/2014

1. Division · Round 26Stadyen DYuSSh-8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Lokomotiv Gomel44%

×Draw24%

Minsk II32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv GomelExpected goals in this matchMinsk II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.32

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.60

Minsk II

1.32

Lokomotiv Gomel creates 21% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 27 away

1.83

creates per match

1.74

0.91

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.83

Minsk II

1.74

allows per match

Lokomotiv Gomel

0.91

Minsk II

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Gomel+0.00on par

Minsk II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Gomel ↓

Minsk II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Gomel or draw

68%

Lokomotiv Gomel or Minsk II

76%

Draw or Minsk II

56%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Gomel wins by 2+

22%

Minsk II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Gomel 1+ goals

80%

Lokomotiv Gomel 2+ goals

47%

Lokomotiv Gomel 3+ goals

22%

Minsk II 1+ goals

73%

Minsk II 2+ goals

38%

Minsk II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Gomel (draw refunded)

58%

Minsk II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Gomel at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.91 · 23 matches

Minsk II away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Gomel attack 1.83 + Minsk II defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.60

Minsk II attack 1.74 + Lokomotiv Gomel defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lokomotiv Gomel scores more

44%

level

24%

Minsk II scores more

32%

Lokomotiv Gomel at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lokomotiv Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Lavrenchuk← S. Khmelev

46'

A. Chub← D. Yakhno

48'

F. Sapon

62'

P. Dimitrov← D. Savitskiy

70'

S. Koshel← I. Makarov

73'

F. Sapon

78'

S. Koshel

82'

S. KoshelPenalty

83'

A. Malyschev← A. Krasavin

85'

E. Belyavski← A. Razin

89'

Y. Shpakov← O. Evdokimov

Lokomotiv

Minsk

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

46'▲A. Lavrenchuk←▼S. Khmelev

46'▲A. Chub←▼D. Yakhno

62'▲P. Dimitrov←▼D. Savitskiy

Lokomotiv Gomel substitutes

LavrenchukChubDimitrov

70'▲S. Koshel←▼I. Makarov

83'▲A. Malyschev←▼A. Krasavin

85'▲E. Belyavski←▼A. Razin

89'▲Y. Shpakov←▼O. Evdokimov

Minsk II substitutes

KoshelMalyschevBelyavskiShpakov