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Minneapolis City vs Manitoba — USL League Two 2018

Minneapolis City
Minneapolis City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Manitoba
Manitoba
6/30/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 54Edor Nelson Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Minneapolis City46%
×Draw22%
Manitoba32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minneapolis City
1.90
Manitoba
1.54

Minneapolis City creates 23% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 12 away

creates per match

Minneapolis City
2.13
Manitoba
1.75

allows per match

Minneapolis City
1.34
Manitoba
1.67

finishing

Minneapolis City+0.00on par
Manitoba+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minneapolis City ↓

Manitoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Minneapolis City or draw
68%
Minneapolis City or Manitoba
78%
Draw or Manitoba
54%

Winning margin

Minneapolis City wins by 2+
26%
Manitoba wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Minneapolis City 1+ goals
85%
Minneapolis City 2+ goals
56%
Minneapolis City 3+ goals
29%
Manitoba 1+ goals
79%
Manitoba 2+ goals
45%
Manitoba 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Minneapolis City (draw refunded)
59%
Manitoba (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minneapolis City at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

Manitoba away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minneapolis City attack 2.13 + Manitoba defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.90

Manitoba attack 1.75 + Minneapolis City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Minneapolis City scores more
46%
level
22%
Manitoba scores more
32%

Minneapolis City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Minneapolis City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Minneapolis City vs Manitoba

Manitoba beat Minneapolis City 2-1 in USL League Two on June 30, 2022.

The match was played at Edor Nelson Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota.