Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Manitoba vs Minneapolis City — USL League Two 2018

Manitoba
Manitoba
FT
4 – 1
Minneapolis City
Minneapolis City
6/19/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 42Ralph Cantafio Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Manitoba40%
×Draw23%
Minneapolis City37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manitoba
1.71
Minneapolis City
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 31 away

creates per match

Manitoba
1.73
Minneapolis City
1.71

allows per match

Manitoba
1.55
Minneapolis City
1.68

finishing

Manitoba+0.00on par
Minneapolis City+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manitoba ↓

Minneapolis City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Manitoba or draw
63%
Manitoba or Minneapolis City
77%
Draw or Minneapolis City
60%

Winning margin

Manitoba wins by 2+
21%
Minneapolis City wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Manitoba 1+ goals
82%
Manitoba 2+ goals
51%
Manitoba 3+ goals
24%
Minneapolis City 1+ goals
80%
Minneapolis City 2+ goals
48%
Minneapolis City 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Manitoba (draw refunded)
52%
Minneapolis City (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manitoba at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Minneapolis City away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manitoba attack 1.73 + Minneapolis City defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.71

Minneapolis City attack 1.71 + Manitoba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Manitoba scores more
40%
level
23%
Minneapolis City scores more
37%

Manitoba at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Manitoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Manitoba 4–1 Minneapolis City

Manitoba beat Minneapolis City 4-1 in USL League Two on June 19, 2022.

The match was played at Ralph Cantafio Soccer Complex in Winnipeg, Manitoba.