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Minija vs Kauno Žalgiris II — 1 Lyga 2026

Minija
Minija
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
5/10/20251 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 8Kretinga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Minija52%
×Draw23%
Kauno Žalgiris II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minija
1.79
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.18

Minija creates 52% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 77 away

creates per match

Minija
1.46
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.05

allows per match

Minija
1.30
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.13

finishing

Minija+0.00on par
Kauno Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minija ↓

Kauno Žalgiris II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Minija or draw
75%
Minija or Kauno Žalgiris II
77%
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris II
48%

Winning margin

Minija wins by 2+
29%
Kauno Žalgiris II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Minija 1+ goals
83%
Minija 2+ goals
53%
Minija 3+ goals
26%
Kauno Žalgiris II 1+ goals
69%
Kauno Žalgiris II 2+ goals
33%
Kauno Žalgiris II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Minija (draw refunded)
67%
Kauno Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minija at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.30 · 104 matches

Kauno Žalgiris II away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.13 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minija attack 1.46 + Kauno Žalgiris II defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.79

Kauno Žalgiris II attack 1.05 + Minija defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Minija scores more
52%
level
23%
Kauno Žalgiris II scores more
25%

Minija at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Minija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Minija 2–0 Kauno Žalgiris II

Minija beat Kauno Žalgiris II 2-0 in 1 Lyga on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Kretinga Stadium in Kretinga.