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Kauno Žalgiris II vs Minija — 1 Lyga 2026

Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Minija
Minija
4/19/20261 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Kauno Žalgiris II38%
×Draw24%
Minija39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kauno Žalgiris II
1.56
Minija
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 102 away

creates per match

Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Minija
1.33

allows per match

Kauno Žalgiris II
1.85
Minija
1.78

finishing

Kauno Žalgiris II+0.00on par
Minija+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kauno Žalgiris II ↓

Minija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kauno Žalgiris II or draw
61%
Kauno Žalgiris II or Minija
76%
Draw or Minija
62%

Winning margin

Kauno Žalgiris II wins by 2+
18%
Minija wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kauno Žalgiris II 1+ goals
79%
Kauno Žalgiris II 2+ goals
46%
Kauno Žalgiris II 3+ goals
21%
Minija 1+ goals
80%
Minija 2+ goals
47%
Minija 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kauno Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
49%
Minija (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kauno Žalgiris II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.85 · 73 matches

Minija away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kauno Žalgiris II attack 1.33 + Minija defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Minija attack 1.33 + Kauno Žalgiris II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kauno Žalgiris II scores more
38%
level
24%
Minija scores more
39%

Minija at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Minija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kauno Žalgiris II vs Minija

Minija beat Kauno Žalgiris II 4-0 in 1 Lyga on April 19, 2026.