Minija 0–0 Hegelmann Litauen: Result & Stats

Minija

FT

0 – 0

Hegelmann Litauen

7/3/2019

1 Lyga · Round 15Kretingos miesto stadionas (Kretinga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Minija33%

×Draw25%

Hegelmann Litauen42%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MinijaExpected goals in this matchHegelmann Litauen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.54

Minija

1.32

Hegelmann Litauen

1.54

Hegelmann Litauen creates 17% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 26 away

1.45

creates per match

1.73

1.36

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Minija

1.45

Hegelmann Litauen

1.73

allows per match

Minija

1.36

Hegelmann Litauen

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minija+0.00on par

Hegelmann Litauen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minija ↓

Hegelmann Litauen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Minija or draw

58%

Minija or Hegelmann Litauen

75%

Draw or Hegelmann Litauen

67%

Winning margin

Minija wins by 2+

14%

Hegelmann Litauen wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Minija 1+ goals

73%

Minija 2+ goals

38%

Minija 3+ goals

15%

Hegelmann Litauen 1+ goals

79%

Hegelmann Litauen 2+ goals

45%

Hegelmann Litauen 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Minija (draw refunded)

43%

Hegelmann Litauen (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minija at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 107 matches

Hegelmann Litauen away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minija attack 1.45 + Hegelmann Litauen defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.32

Hegelmann Litauen attack 1.73 + Minija defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Minija scores more

33%

level

25%

Hegelmann Litauen scores more

42%

Hegelmann Litauen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hegelmann Litauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff