Hegelmann Litauen 2–0 Minija: Result & Stats

Hegelmann Litauen

FT

2 – 0

Minija

U. Lekecinskas 44'

B. Olencevicius 36' (pen)

10/27/2019

1 Lyga · Round 30Nacionalinės futbolo akademijos stadionas (Kaunas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Hegelmann Litauen62%

×Draw19%

Minija19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hegelmann LitauenExpected goals in this matchMinija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.20

Hegelmann Litauen

2.31

Minija

1.20

Hegelmann Litauen creates 93% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 103 away

2.70

creates per match

1.33

1.07

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Hegelmann Litauen

2.70

Minija

1.33

allows per match

Hegelmann Litauen

1.07

Minija

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hegelmann Litauen+0.00on par

Minija+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hegelmann Litauen ↓

Minija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Hegelmann Litauen or draw

81%

Hegelmann Litauen or Minija

81%

Draw or Minija

38%

Winning margin

Hegelmann Litauen wins by 2+

40%

Minija wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hegelmann Litauen 1+ goals

90%

Hegelmann Litauen 2+ goals

67%

Hegelmann Litauen 3+ goals

40%

Minija 1+ goals

70%

Minija 2+ goals

34%

Minija 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hegelmann Litauen (draw refunded)

77%

Minija (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hegelmann Litauen at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

Minija away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.93 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hegelmann Litauen attack 2.70 + Minija defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.31

Minija attack 1.33 + Hegelmann Litauen defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hegelmann Litauen scores more

62%

level

19%

Minija scores more

19%

Hegelmann Litauen at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hegelmann Litauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

B. OlenceviciusPenalty

44'

U. Lekecinskas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff