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Minija vs Džiugas Telšiai — 1 Lyga 2026

Minija
Minija
FT
3 – 5
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
G. Juska 65' (pen)
A. Solovyev 34'
G. Bezerra 31'
D. Arlauskis 88' (pen), 83', 33'
R. Sakurai 78'
R. Stanulevicius 44'
7/25/20201 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 8Kretingos miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Minija32%
×Draw25%
Džiugas Telšiai43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minija
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.50

Džiugas Telšiai creates 20% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 27 away

creates per match

Minija
1.43
Džiugas Telšiai
1.67

allows per match

Minija
1.34
Džiugas Telšiai
1.07

finishing

Minija+0.00on par
Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minija ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Minija or draw
57%
Minija or Džiugas Telšiai
75%
Draw or Džiugas Telšiai
68%

Winning margin

Minija wins by 2+
13%
Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Minija 1+ goals
71%
Minija 2+ goals
36%
Minija 3+ goals
13%
Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
78%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
44%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Minija (draw refunded)
42%
Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minija at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.34 · 105 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minija attack 1.43 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.67 + Minija defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Minija scores more
32%
level
25%
Džiugas Telšiai scores more
43%

Džiugas Telšiai at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
G. Bezerra
33'
D. Arlauskis
34'
A. Solovyev
44'
R. Stanulevicius
65'
G. JuskaPenalty
78'
R. Sakurai
80'
D. Siusa
80'
D. Siusa
83'
D. Arlauskis
88'
D. ArlauskisPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Minija vs Džiugas Telšiai

Džiugas Telšiai beat Minija 5-3 in 1 Lyga on July 25, 2020.

Goals: G. Bezerra (31'), D. Arlauskis (33', 83', 88' pen), A. Solovyev (34'), R. Stanulevicius (44'), G. Juska (65' pen), R. Sakurai (78').

The match was played at Kretingos miesto stadionas in Kretinga.