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Džiugas Telšiai vs Minija — 1 Lyga 2026

Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
FT
5 – 1
Minija
Minija
K. Shults 55'
A. Lipskis 52', 29'
D. Arlauskis 24', 11'
D. Surblys 84' (pen)
6/21/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 13Telšių centrinis stadionas (Telšiai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Džiugas Telšiai57%
×Draw22%
Minija21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Džiugas Telšiai
1.98
Minija
1.11

Džiugas Telšiai creates 78% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 102 away

creates per match

Džiugas Telšiai
2.04
Minija
1.34

allows per match

Džiugas Telšiai
0.88
Minija
1.93

finishing

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par
Minija+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Džiugas Telšiai ↓

Minija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Džiugas Telšiai or draw
79%
Džiugas Telšiai or Minija
78%
Draw or Minija
43%

Winning margin

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
34%
Minija wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
86%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
59%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
31%
Minija 1+ goals
67%
Minija 2+ goals
30%
Minija 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
73%
Minija (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Džiugas Telšiai at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Minija away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.93 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Džiugas Telšiai attack 2.04 + Minija defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.98

Minija attack 1.34 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Džiugas Telšiai scores more
57%
level
22%
Minija scores more
21%

Džiugas Telšiai at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
D. Arlauskis
24'
D. Arlauskis
29'
A. Lipskis
52'
A. Lipskis
55'
K. Shults
84'
D. SurblysPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Džiugas Telšiai vs Minija

Džiugas Telšiai beat Minija 5-1 in 1 Lyga on June 21, 2019.

Goals: D. Arlauskis (11', 24'), A. Lipskis (29', 52'), K. Shults (55'), D. Surblys (84' pen).

The match was played at Telšių centrinis stadionas (Telšiai).