Minija 3–1 Dainava: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Minija

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dainava

5/9/2026

1 Lyga · Round 9Kretinga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Minija34%

×Draw26%

Dainava41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MinijaExpected goals in this matchDainava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.44

Minija

1.28

Dainava

1.44

Dainava creates 13% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 45 away

1.43

creates per match

1.53

1.34

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Minija

1.43

Dainava

1.53

allows per match

Minija

1.34

Dainava

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minija+0.00on par

Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minija ↓

Dainava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Minija or draw

59%

Minija or Dainava

74%

Draw or Dainava

66%

Winning margin

Minija wins by 2+

15%

Dainava wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Minija 1+ goals

72%

Minija 2+ goals

37%

Minija 3+ goals

14%

Dainava 1+ goals

76%

Dainava 2+ goals

42%

Dainava 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Minija (draw refunded)

45%

Dainava (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minija at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.34 · 105 matches

Dainava away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minija attack 1.43 + Dainava defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.28

Dainava attack 1.53 + Minija defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Minija scores more

34%

level

26%

Dainava scores more

41%

Dainava at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dainava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff