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Minija vs Dainava — Cup 2020

Minija
Minija
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dainava
Dainava
4/23/2022CupCup · 1st RoundKretingos dirbtinės dangos aikštė

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Minija6%
×Draw13%
Dainava81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minija
0.61
Dainava
2.73

Dainava creates 348% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Minija
0.40
Dainava
3.67

allows per match

Minija
1.80
Dainava
0.83

finishing

Minija+0.00on par
Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minija ↓

Dainava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–213%
0–312%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Minija or draw
19%
Minija or Dainava
87%
Draw or Dainava
94%

Winning margin

Minija wins by 2+
1%
Dainava wins by 2+
61%

Team goals

Minija 1+ goals
46%
Minija 2+ goals
13%
Minija 3+ goals
2%
Dainava 1+ goals
93%
Dainava 2+ goals
75%
Dainava 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Minija (draw refunded)
7%
Dainava (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minija at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Dainava away — creates 3.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minija attack 0.40 + Dainava defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.61

Dainava attack 3.67 + Minija defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Minija scores more
6%
level
13%
Dainava scores more
81%

Dainava at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Dainava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Minija vs Dainava

Dainava beat Minija 2-0 in Cup on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Kretingos dirbtinės dangos aikštė in Kretinga.