Mingəçevir 0–2 İrəvan: Result & Stats

Mingəçevir

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

İrəvan

11/1/2023

Birinci Dasta · Round 7Yaşar Məmmədzadə adına şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Mingəçevir47%

×Draw26%

İrəvan27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MingəçevirExpected goals in this matchİrəvan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.07

Mingəçevir

1.48

İrəvan

1.07

Mingəçevir creates 38% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 14 away

1.33

creates per match

0.93

1.22

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Mingəçevir

1.33

İrəvan

0.93

allows per match

Mingəçevir

1.22

İrəvan

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mingəçevir+0.00on par

İrəvan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mingəçevir ↓

İrəvan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mingəçevir or draw

73%

Mingəçevir or İrəvan

74%

Draw or İrəvan

53%

Winning margin

Mingəçevir wins by 2+

23%

İrəvan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mingəçevir 1+ goals

77%

Mingəçevir 2+ goals

43%

Mingəçevir 3+ goals

19%

İrəvan 1+ goals

66%

İrəvan 2+ goals

29%

İrəvan 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mingəçevir (draw refunded)

63%

İrəvan (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mingəçevir at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

İrəvan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mingəçevir attack 1.33 + İrəvan defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

İrəvan attack 0.93 + Mingəçevir defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mingəçevir scores more

47%

level

26%

İrəvan scores more

27%

Mingəçevir at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mingəçevir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mingəçevir vs İrəvan

İrəvan beat Mingəçevir 2-0 in Birinci Dasta on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Yaşar Məmmədzadə adına şəhər stadionu in Mingəçevir.

Mingəçevir vs İrəvan — Birinci Dasta 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Mingəçevir vs İrəvan