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İrəvan vs Mingəçevir — Birinci Dasta 2019

İrəvan
İrəvan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
2/22/2024Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 15ASK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

İrəvan37%
×Draw22%
Mingəçevir41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

İrəvan
1.69
Mingəçevir
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 56 away

creates per match

İrəvan
1.69
Mingəçevir
1.05

allows per match

İrəvan
2.54
Mingəçevir
1.68

finishing

İrəvan+0.00on par
Mingəçevir+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İrəvan ↓

Mingəçevir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

İrəvan or draw
59%
İrəvan or Mingəçevir
78%
Draw or Mingəçevir
63%

Winning margin

İrəvan wins by 2+
18%
Mingəçevir wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

İrəvan 1+ goals
82%
İrəvan 2+ goals
50%
İrəvan 3+ goals
24%
Mingəçevir 1+ goals
83%
Mingəçevir 2+ goals
53%
Mingəçevir 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

İrəvan (draw refunded)
47%
Mingəçevir (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İrəvan at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Mingəçevir away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.68 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İrəvan attack 1.69 + Mingəçevir defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.69

Mingəçevir attack 1.05 + İrəvan defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

İrəvan scores more
37%
level
22%
Mingəçevir scores more
41%

Mingəçevir at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mingəçevir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birinci Dasta: İrəvan 1–0 Mingəçevir

İrəvan beat Mingəçevir 1-0 in Birinci Dasta on February 22, 2024.

The match was played at ASK Arena in Baku.