Mingəçevir 0–1 Imisli FK: Result & Stats

Mingəçevir

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Imisli FK

4/3/2024

Birinci Dasta · Round 20Yaşar Məmmədzadə adına şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Mingəçevir43%

×Draw26%

Imisli FK31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MingəçevirExpected goals in this matchImisli FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.21

Mingəçevir

1.47

Imisli FK

1.21

Mingəçevir creates 21% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 42 away

1.33

creates per match

1.19

1.22

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Mingəçevir

1.33

Imisli FK

1.19

allows per match

Mingəçevir

1.22

Imisli FK

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mingəçevir+0.00on par

Imisli FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mingəçevir ↓

Imisli FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mingəçevir or draw

69%

Mingəçevir or Imisli FK

74%

Draw or Imisli FK

57%

Winning margin

Mingəçevir wins by 2+

21%

Imisli FK wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mingəçevir 1+ goals

77%

Mingəçevir 2+ goals

43%

Mingəçevir 3+ goals

18%

Imisli FK 1+ goals

70%

Imisli FK 2+ goals

34%

Imisli FK 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mingəçevir (draw refunded)

58%

Imisli FK (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mingəçevir at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

Imisli FK away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mingəçevir attack 1.33 + Imisli FK defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Imisli FK attack 1.19 + Mingəçevir defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mingəçevir scores more

43%

level

26%

Imisli FK scores more

31%

Mingəçevir at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mingəçevir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff