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Imisli FK vs Mingəçevir — Birinci Dasta 2019

Imisli FK
Imisli FK
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
3/7/2025Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 17Heydər Əliyev adına şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Imisli FK47%
×Draw26%
Mingəçevir27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imisli FK
1.48
Mingəçevir
1.06

Imisli FK creates 40% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 56 away

creates per match

Imisli FK
1.29
Mingəçevir
1.05

allows per match

Imisli FK
1.07
Mingəçevir
1.68

finishing

Imisli FK+0.00on par
Mingəçevir+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imisli FK ↓

Mingəçevir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Imisli FK or draw
73%
Imisli FK or Mingəçevir
74%
Draw or Mingəçevir
53%

Winning margin

Imisli FK wins by 2+
23%
Mingəçevir wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Imisli FK 1+ goals
77%
Imisli FK 2+ goals
43%
Imisli FK 3+ goals
19%
Mingəçevir 1+ goals
65%
Mingəçevir 2+ goals
29%
Mingəçevir 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Imisli FK (draw refunded)
63%
Mingəçevir (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imisli FK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.07 · 41 matches

Mingəçevir away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.68 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imisli FK attack 1.29 + Mingəçevir defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mingəçevir attack 1.05 + Imisli FK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Imisli FK scores more
47%
level
26%
Mingəçevir scores more
27%

Imisli FK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Imisli FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Imisli FK vs Mingəçevir

Mingəçevir beat Imisli FK 1-0 in Birinci Dasta on March 7, 2025.

The match was played at Heydər Əliyev adına şəhər stadionu in İmişli.