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Mingəçevir vs Araz Saatlı — Birinci Dasta 2019

Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Araz Saatlı
Araz Saatlı
12/14/2023Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 11Yaşar Məmmədzadə adına şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mingəçevir68%
×Draw18%
Araz Saatlı15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mingəçevir
2.48
Araz Saatlı
1.07

Mingəçevir creates 132% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 13 away

creates per match

Mingəçevir
1.33
Araz Saatlı
0.92

allows per match

Mingəçevir
1.22
Araz Saatlı
3.62

finishing

Mingəçevir+0.00on par
Araz Saatlı+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mingəçevir ↓

Araz Saatlı →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Mingəçevir or draw
85%
Mingəçevir or Araz Saatlı
82%
Draw or Araz Saatlı
32%

Winning margin

Mingəçevir wins by 2+
46%
Araz Saatlı wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mingəçevir 1+ goals
92%
Mingəçevir 2+ goals
70%
Mingəçevir 3+ goals
44%
Araz Saatlı 1+ goals
66%
Araz Saatlı 2+ goals
29%
Araz Saatlı 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mingəçevir (draw refunded)
82%
Araz Saatlı (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mingəçevir at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

Araz Saatlı away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mingəçevir attack 1.33 + Araz Saatlı defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.48

Araz Saatlı attack 0.92 + Mingəçevir defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Mingəçevir scores more
68%
level
18%
Araz Saatlı scores more
15%

Mingəçevir at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Mingəçevir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birinci Dasta: Mingəçevir 3–1 Araz Saatlı

Mingəçevir beat Araz Saatlı 3-1 in Birinci Dasta on December 14, 2023.

The match was played at Yaşar Məmmədzadə adına şəhər stadionu in Mingəçevir.