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Araz Saatlı vs Mingəçevir — Birinci Dasta 2019

Araz Saatlı
Araz Saatlı
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
3/28/2024Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 19Saatli Rayon Olimpiya Idman Kompleksi Stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Araz Saatlı32%
×Draw24%
Mingəçevir45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Araz Saatlı
1.41
Mingəçevir
1.71

Mingəçevir creates 21% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 56 away

creates per match

Araz Saatlı
1.14
Mingəçevir
1.05

allows per match

Araz Saatlı
2.36
Mingəçevir
1.68

finishing

Araz Saatlı+0.00on par
Mingəçevir+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Araz Saatlı ↓

Mingəçevir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Araz Saatlı or draw
55%
Araz Saatlı or Mingəçevir
76%
Draw or Mingəçevir
68%

Winning margin

Araz Saatlı wins by 2+
14%
Mingəçevir wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Araz Saatlı 1+ goals
76%
Araz Saatlı 2+ goals
41%
Araz Saatlı 3+ goals
17%
Mingəçevir 1+ goals
82%
Mingəçevir 2+ goals
51%
Mingəçevir 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Araz Saatlı (draw refunded)
42%
Mingəçevir (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Araz Saatlı at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

Mingəçevir away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.68 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Araz Saatlı attack 1.14 + Mingəçevir defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.41

Mingəçevir attack 1.05 + Araz Saatlı defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Araz Saatlı scores more
32%
level
24%
Mingəçevir scores more
45%

Mingəçevir at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mingəçevir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Araz Saatlı 4 – 0 Mingəçevir

Araz Saatlı beat Mingəçevir 4-0 in Birinci Dasta on March 28, 2024.

The match was played at Saatli Rayon Olimpiya Idman Kompleksi Stadionu in Saatli.