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Minervén vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz — Segunda División 2018

Minervén
Minervén
CANC
18:00
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
5/3/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Minervén18%
×Draw20%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minervén
1.07
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
2.12

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz creates 98% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 84 away

creates per match

Minervén
0.75
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
0.99

allows per match

Minervén
3.25
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
1.40

finishing

Minervén+0.00on par
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minervén ↓

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Minervén or draw
39%
Minervén or Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
80%
Draw or Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
82%

Winning margin

Minervén wins by 2+
7%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Minervén 1+ goals
66%
Minervén 2+ goals
29%
Minervén 3+ goals
9%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 1+ goals
88%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2+ goals
62%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Minervén (draw refunded)
23%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minervén at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minervén attack 0.75 + Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.07

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz attack 0.99 + Minervén defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Minervén scores more
18%
level
20%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz scores more
61%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Minervén face Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz (Segunda División)

Segunda División returns with Minervén hosting Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz. Match starts May 3, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.