Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz vs Minervén — Segunda División 2018

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
CANC
00:00
Minervén
Minervén
3/22/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz72%
×Draw17%
Minervén12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
2.49
Minervén
0.90

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz creates 177% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
1.20
Minervén
0.67

allows per match

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
1.12
Minervén
3.78

finishing

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz+0.00on par
Minervén+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz ↓

Minervén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz or draw
88%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz or Minervén
83%
Draw or Minervén
28%

Winning margin

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz wins by 2+
49%
Minervén wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 1+ goals
92%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2+ goals
71%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 3+ goals
45%
Minervén 1+ goals
59%
Minervén 2+ goals
23%
Minervén 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz (draw refunded)
86%
Minervén (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 82 matches

Minervén away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz attack 1.20 + Minervén defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.49

Minervén attack 0.67 + Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz scores more
72%
level
17%
Minervén scores more
12%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz host Minervén

March 22, 2020: Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz take on Minervén in Segunda División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.