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Minerva Punjab vs Kenkre — I-League 2019

Minerva Punjab
Minerva Punjab
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kenkre
Kenkre
1/14/2023I-LeagueI-League · Round 11Tau Devi Lal Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Minerva Punjab59%
×Draw23%
Kenkre18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minerva Punjab
1.75
Kenkre
0.85

Minerva Punjab creates 106% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 24 away

creates per match

Minerva Punjab
1.82
Kenkre
0.71

allows per match

Minerva Punjab
1.00
Kenkre
1.67

finishing

Minerva Punjab+0.00on par
Kenkre+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minerva Punjab ↓

Kenkre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Minerva Punjab or draw
82%
Minerva Punjab or Kenkre
77%
Draw or Kenkre
41%

Winning margin

Minerva Punjab wins by 2+
33%
Kenkre wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Minerva Punjab 1+ goals
83%
Minerva Punjab 2+ goals
52%
Minerva Punjab 3+ goals
25%
Kenkre 1+ goals
57%
Kenkre 2+ goals
21%
Kenkre 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Minerva Punjab (draw refunded)
77%
Kenkre (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minerva Punjab at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Kenkre away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.67 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minerva Punjab attack 1.82 + Kenkre defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Kenkre attack 0.71 + Minerva Punjab defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Minerva Punjab scores more
59%
level
23%
Kenkre scores more
18%

Minerva Punjab at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Minerva Punjab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Minerva Punjab 3–0 Kenkre

Minerva Punjab beat Kenkre 3-0 in I-League on January 14, 2023.

The match was played at Tau Devi Lal Football Stadium in Panchkula.