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Kenkre vs Minerva Punjab — I-League 2019

Kenkre
Kenkre
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Minerva Punjab
Minerva Punjab
3/8/2022I-LeagueI-League · Round 3Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kenkre28%
×Draw25%
Minerva Punjab48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kenkre
1.19
Minerva Punjab
1.63

Minerva Punjab creates 37% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 33 away

creates per match

Kenkre
1.07
Minerva Punjab
1.52

allows per match

Kenkre
1.73
Minerva Punjab
1.30

finishing

Kenkre+0.00on par
Minerva Punjab+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kenkre ↓

Minerva Punjab →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kenkre or draw
52%
Kenkre or Minerva Punjab
75%
Draw or Minerva Punjab
72%

Winning margin

Kenkre wins by 2+
11%
Minerva Punjab wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Kenkre 1+ goals
70%
Kenkre 2+ goals
33%
Kenkre 3+ goals
12%
Minerva Punjab 1+ goals
80%
Minerva Punjab 2+ goals
48%
Minerva Punjab 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kenkre (draw refunded)
37%
Minerva Punjab (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kenkre at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Minerva Punjab away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kenkre attack 1.07 + Minerva Punjab defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Minerva Punjab attack 1.52 + Kenkre defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kenkre scores more
28%
level
25%
Minerva Punjab scores more
48%

Minerva Punjab at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Minerva Punjab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kenkre vs Minerva Punjab

Minerva Punjab beat Kenkre 4-0 in I-League on March 8, 2022.

The match was played at Kalyani Stadium in Kalyani.