Minerva Punjab 1–1 Goa: Result & Stats

Minerva Punjab

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Goa

N. Effiong 27'

D. Drazic 53'

3/16/2026

Indian Super League · Round 5Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Minerva Punjab41%

×Draw28%

Goa31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Minerva PunjabExpected goals in this matchGoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.04

Minerva Punjab

1.25

Goa

1.04

Minerva Punjab creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.33

creates per match

1.25

0.83

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Minerva Punjab

1.33

Goa

1.25

allows per match

Minerva Punjab

0.83

Goa

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minerva Punjab+0.00on par

Goa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minerva Punjab ↓

Goa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Minerva Punjab or draw

69%

Minerva Punjab or Goa

72%

Draw or Goa

59%

Winning margin

Minerva Punjab wins by 2+

18%

Goa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Minerva Punjab 1+ goals

71%

Minerva Punjab 2+ goals

36%

Minerva Punjab 3+ goals

13%

Goa 1+ goals

65%

Goa 2+ goals

28%

Goa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Minerva Punjab (draw refunded)

57%

Goa (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minerva Punjab at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Goa away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minerva Punjab attack 1.33 + Goa defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Goa attack 1.25 + Minerva Punjab defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Minerva Punjab scores more

41%

level

28%

Goa scores more

31%

Minerva Punjab at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Minerva Punjab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

55

H. Tiwari

Goa · G

7.9

Match Events

27'

N. Effiong↳ M. Kipgen

39'

Ayush Dev Chhetri

46'

R. Fernandes← A. Chhetri

46'

A. Rabeeh A K← I. Pandita

48'

Nsungusi Effiong

53'

D. Drazic↳ B. Fernandes

54'

B. Osuji← Dani Ramirez

57'

N. S. Meitei← P. Santos

75'

M. Yasir← B. Singh

77'

P. Rebello← L. Augustine

77'

V. Rai← M. Kipgen

84'

Sahil Tavora

85'

D. Lalhlimpuia← U. Singh

90+6'

Raynier Fernandes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MinervaGoa

Overview

42%Possession58%

6Total Shots11

1.13Expected Goals (xG)0.91

2Corners10

13Fouls8

Shots

6Total Shots11

5On Target3

1Off Target6

0Blocked2

4Inside Box8

2Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

353Total Passes474

259Accurate Passes386

73%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls8

0Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Minerva Punjab vs Goa

Minerva Punjab and Goa drew 1-1 in Indian Super League on March 16, 2026.

Goals: N. Effiong (27'), D. Drazic (53').

Goa controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium in New Delhi.

Minerva Punjab vs Goa — Indian Super League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Minerva Punjab vs Goa