Minerva Punjab 3–3 Goa: Result & Stats

Minerva Punjab

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Goa

Juan Mera 78'

L. Majcen 61'

W. Jordán 54'

Carlos Martínez 84'

N. Sadaoui 72' (pen)

C. McHugh 5'

3/11/2024

Indian Super League · Round 19Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Minerva Punjab35%

×Draw26%

Goa39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Minerva PunjabExpected goals in this matchGoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.40

Minerva Punjab

1.30

Goa

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 20 away

1.20

creates per match

1.30

1.50

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Minerva Punjab

1.20

Goa

1.30

allows per match

Minerva Punjab

1.50

Goa

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minerva Punjab+0.00on par

Goa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minerva Punjab ↓

Goa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Minerva Punjab or draw

61%

Minerva Punjab or Goa

74%

Draw or Goa

65%

Winning margin

Minerva Punjab wins by 2+

15%

Goa wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Minerva Punjab 1+ goals

73%

Minerva Punjab 2+ goals

37%

Minerva Punjab 3+ goals

14%

Goa 1+ goals

75%

Goa 2+ goals

41%

Goa 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Minerva Punjab (draw refunded)

47%

Goa (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minerva Punjab at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Goa away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minerva Punjab attack 1.20 + Goa defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Goa attack 1.30 + Minerva Punjab defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Minerva Punjab scores more

35%

level

26%

Goa scores more

39%

Goa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Goa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

N. Sadaoui

Goa · F

9.6

Match Events

5'

C. McHugh↳ Borja Herrera

36'

Amarjit Kiyam Singh

51'

Khaiminthang Lhungdim

54'

W. Jordán↳ L. Majcen

56'

S. Tavora← R. Shabong

61'

T. Singh← K. Lhungdim

61'

L. Majcen↳ M. Talal

66'

B. Singh← U. Singh

66'

R. Borges← R. Fernandes

66'

Carlos Martínez← Borja Herrera

72'

N. SadaouiPenalty

75'

Juan Mera← W. Jordán

78'

Juan Mera↳ M. Talal

80'

B. Fernandes← B. Fernandes

80'

M. Yasir← S. Fernandes

84'

Carlos Martínez↳ N. Sadaoui

90+3'

Sahil Tavora

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MinervaGoa

Overview

39%Possession61%

9Total Shots24

0Corners9

12Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots24

3On Target9

6Off Target10

0Blocked5

5Inside Box14

4Outside Box10

Passing

39%Possession61%

346Total Passes537

255Accurate Passes437

74%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls12

3Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0