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Mineros de Guyana vs Marítimo — Segunda División 2018

Mineros de Guyana
Mineros de Guyana
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Marítimo
Marítimo
5/18/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 9Estadio Cachamay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Mineros de Guyana32%
×Draw29%
Marítimo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mineros de Guyana
1.04
Marítimo
1.16

Marítimo creates 12% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 55 away

creates per match

Mineros de Guyana
1.00
Marítimo
1.22

allows per match

Mineros de Guyana
1.10
Marítimo
1.07

finishing

Mineros de Guyana+0.00on par
Marítimo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mineros de Guyana ↓

Marítimo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mineros de Guyana or draw
62%
Mineros de Guyana or Marítimo
71%
Draw or Marítimo
68%

Winning margin

Mineros de Guyana wins by 2+
12%
Marítimo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mineros de Guyana 1+ goals
65%
Mineros de Guyana 2+ goals
28%
Mineros de Guyana 3+ goals
9%
Marítimo 1+ goals
69%
Marítimo 2+ goals
32%
Marítimo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mineros de Guyana (draw refunded)
46%
Marítimo (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mineros de Guyana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Marítimo away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.07 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mineros de Guyana attack 1.00 + Marítimo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Marítimo attack 1.22 + Mineros de Guyana defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mineros de Guyana scores more
32%
level
29%
Marítimo scores more
38%

Marítimo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Marítimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Mineros de Guyana 1–2 Marítimo

Marítimo beat Mineros de Guyana 2-1 in Segunda División on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Cachamay in Ciudad Guayana.