Marítimo 1–1 Mineros de Guyana: Result & Stats

Marítimo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Mineros de Guyana

4/4/2026

Segunda División · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Marítimo60%

×Draw25%

Mineros de Guyana15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarítimoExpected goals in this matchMineros de Guyana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.61

Marítimo

1.54

Mineros de Guyana

0.61

Marítimo creates 152% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 21 away

1.71

creates per match

0.62

0.61

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Marítimo

1.71

Mineros de Guyana

0.62

allows per match

Marítimo

0.61

Mineros de Guyana

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marítimo+0.00on par

Mineros de Guyana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marítimo ↓

Mineros de Guyana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Marítimo or draw

85%

Marítimo or Mineros de Guyana

75%

Draw or Mineros de Guyana

40%

Winning margin

Marítimo wins by 2+

32%

Mineros de Guyana wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Marítimo 1+ goals

79%

Marítimo 2+ goals

45%

Marítimo 3+ goals

20%

Mineros de Guyana 1+ goals

46%

Mineros de Guyana 2+ goals

13%

Mineros de Guyana 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Marítimo (draw refunded)

80%

Mineros de Guyana (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marítimo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.61 · 56 matches

Mineros de Guyana away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marítimo attack 1.71 + Mineros de Guyana defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.54

Mineros de Guyana attack 0.62 + Marítimo defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Marítimo scores more

60%

level

25%

Mineros de Guyana scores more

15%

Marítimo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Marítimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff