Mineros de Guyana 2–0 Deportivo Anzoategui

Mineros de Guyana

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Anzoategui

7/22/2018

Primera División · Clausura - 1CTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mineros de Guyana51%

×Draw25%

Deportivo Anzoategui24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mineros de GuyanaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Anzoategui

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.02

Mineros de Guyana

1.62

Deportivo Anzoategui

1.02

Mineros de Guyana creates 59% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 26 away

1.43

creates per match

0.92

1.13

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Mineros de Guyana

1.43

Deportivo Anzoategui

0.92

allows per match

Mineros de Guyana

1.13

Deportivo Anzoategui

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mineros de Guyana+0.00on par

Deportivo Anzoategui+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mineros de Guyana ↓

Deportivo Anzoategui →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mineros de Guyana or draw

76%

Mineros de Guyana or Deportivo Anzoategui

75%

Draw or Deportivo Anzoategui

49%

Winning margin

Mineros de Guyana wins by 2+

27%

Deportivo Anzoategui wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mineros de Guyana 1+ goals

80%

Mineros de Guyana 2+ goals

48%

Mineros de Guyana 3+ goals

22%

Deportivo Anzoategui 1+ goals

64%

Deportivo Anzoategui 2+ goals

27%

Deportivo Anzoategui 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mineros de Guyana (draw refunded)

68%

Deportivo Anzoategui (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mineros de Guyana at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.13 · 91 matches

Deportivo Anzoategui away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mineros de Guyana attack 1.43 + Deportivo Anzoategui defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.62

Deportivo Anzoategui attack 0.92 + Mineros de Guyana defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mineros de Guyana scores more

51%

level

25%

Deportivo Anzoategui scores more

24%

Mineros de Guyana at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mineros de Guyana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff