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Deportivo Anzoategui vs Mineros de Guyana — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Anzoategui
Deportivo Anzoategui
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mineros de Guyana
Mineros de Guyana
1/27/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 1Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Deportivo Anzoategui39%
×Draw27%
Mineros de Guyana34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.29
Mineros de Guyana
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 94 away

creates per match

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.00
Mineros de Guyana
1.06

allows per match

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.33
Mineros de Guyana
1.59

finishing

Deportivo Anzoategui+0.00on par
Mineros de Guyana+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Anzoategui ↓

Mineros de Guyana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Anzoategui or draw
66%
Deportivo Anzoategui or Mineros de Guyana
73%
Draw or Mineros de Guyana
61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Anzoategui wins by 2+
17%
Mineros de Guyana wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Deportivo Anzoategui 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Anzoategui 2+ goals
37%
Deportivo Anzoategui 3+ goals
14%
Mineros de Guyana 1+ goals
70%
Mineros de Guyana 2+ goals
34%
Mineros de Guyana 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Anzoategui (draw refunded)
53%
Mineros de Guyana (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Anzoategui at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Mineros de Guyana away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Anzoategui attack 1.00 + Mineros de Guyana defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mineros de Guyana attack 1.06 + Deportivo Anzoategui defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Anzoategui scores more
39%
level
27%
Mineros de Guyana scores more
34%

Deportivo Anzoategui at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Anzoategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Deportivo Anzoategui 0–1 Mineros de Guyana

Mineros de Guyana beat Deportivo Anzoategui 1-0 in Primera División on January 27, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz).