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Tállya vs DEAC — NB III - Northeast 2019

Tállya
Tállya
FT
1 – 2
DEAC
DEAC
8/11/2019NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 2Károlyi Mihály utca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Tállya24%
×Draw24%
DEAC52%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tállya
1.06
DEAC
1.69

DEAC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 92 away

creates per match

Tállya
1.04
DEAC
1.65

allows per match

Tállya
1.74
DEAC
1.07

finishing

Tállya+0.00on par
DEAC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tállya ↓

DEAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tállya or draw
48%
Tállya or DEAC
76%
Draw or DEAC
76%

Winning margin

Tállya wins by 2+
9%
DEAC wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Tállya 1+ goals
65%
Tállya 2+ goals
29%
Tállya 3+ goals
9%
DEAC 1+ goals
82%
DEAC 2+ goals
50%
DEAC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Tállya (draw refunded)
31%
DEAC (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tállya at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

DEAC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.07 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tállya attack 1.04 + DEAC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

DEAC attack 1.65 + Tállya defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tállya scores more
24%
level
24%
DEAC scores more
52%

DEAC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "DEAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tállya vs DEAC

DEAC beat Tállya 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on August 11, 2019.

The match was played at Károlyi Mihály utca in Ibrány.