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DEAC vs Tállya — NB III - Northeast 2019

DEAC
DEAC
FT
8 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Tállya
Tállya
I. Jankelic 89', 59'
I. Sidibe 82'
R. Gaczella 64'
D. Szekely 41'
L. Szabo 34'
A. Bidzilya 31'
M. Orosz 11'
5/15/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 36Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

DEAC68%
×Draw18%
Tállya14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEAC
2.29
Tállya
0.93

DEAC creates 146% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 47 away

creates per match

DEAC
2.25
Tállya
1.09

allows per match

DEAC
0.76
Tállya
2.32

finishing

DEAC+0.00on par
Tállya+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEAC ↓

Tállya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

DEAC or draw
86%
DEAC or Tállya
82%
Draw or Tállya
32%

Winning margin

DEAC wins by 2+
44%
Tállya wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

DEAC 1+ goals
90%
DEAC 2+ goals
66%
DEAC 3+ goals
40%
Tállya 1+ goals
61%
Tállya 2+ goals
24%
Tállya 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

DEAC (draw refunded)
83%
Tállya (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEAC at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.76 · 91 matches

Tállya away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.32 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEAC attack 2.25 + Tállya defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.29

Tállya attack 1.09 + DEAC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

DEAC scores more
68%
level
18%
Tállya scores more
14%

DEAC at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "DEAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. Orosz
31'
A. Bidzilya
34'
L. Szabo
41'
D. Szekely
59'
I. Jankelic
64'
R. Gaczella
69'
B. Szegedi
82'
I. Sidibe
89'
I. Jankelic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: DEAC 8–0 Tállya

DEAC beat Tállya 8-0 in NB III - Northeast on May 15, 2022.

Goals: M. Orosz (11'), A. Bidzilya (31'), L. Szabo (34'), D. Szekely (41'), I. Jankelic (59', 89'), R. Gaczella (64'), I. Sidibe (82').

The match was played at Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion in Debrecen.