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Minai vs Kolos Kovalivka — Premier League 2019

Minai
Minai
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kolos Kovalivka
Kolos Kovalivka
5/19/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Stadion Mynai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Minai33%
×Draw29%
Kolos Kovalivka39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minai
1.07
Kolos Kovalivka
1.19

Kolos Kovalivka creates 11% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 97 away

creates per match

Minai
0.87
Kolos Kovalivka
0.99

allows per match

Minai
1.38
Kolos Kovalivka
1.28

finishing

Minai+0.00on par
Kolos Kovalivka+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minai ↓

Kolos Kovalivka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Minai or draw
61%
Minai or Kolos Kovalivka
71%
Draw or Kolos Kovalivka
67%

Winning margin

Minai wins by 2+
13%
Kolos Kovalivka wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Minai 1+ goals
66%
Minai 2+ goals
29%
Minai 3+ goals
9%
Kolos Kovalivka 1+ goals
70%
Kolos Kovalivka 2+ goals
33%
Kolos Kovalivka 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Minai (draw refunded)
46%
Kolos Kovalivka (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minai at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Kolos Kovalivka away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.28 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minai attack 0.87 + Kolos Kovalivka defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.07

Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.99 + Minai defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Minai scores more
33%
level
29%
Kolos Kovalivka scores more
39%

Kolos Kovalivka at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kolos Kovalivka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Minai vs Kolos Kovalivka

Minai beat Kolos Kovalivka 3-2 in Premier League on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Mynai in Mynai.