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Kolos Kovalivka vs Minai — Premier League 2019

Kolos Kovalivka
Kolos Kovalivka
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Minai
Minai
12/12/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Stadion Kovalivka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Kolos Kovalivka49%
×Draw28%
Minai23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolos Kovalivka
1.32
Minai
0.81

Kolos Kovalivka creates 63% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 53 away

creates per match

Kolos Kovalivka
0.93
Minai
0.60

allows per match

Kolos Kovalivka
1.02
Minai
1.72

finishing

Kolos Kovalivka+0.00on par
Minai+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolos Kovalivka ↓

Minai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kolos Kovalivka or draw
77%
Kolos Kovalivka or Minai
72%
Draw or Minai
51%

Winning margin

Kolos Kovalivka wins by 2+
23%
Minai wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kolos Kovalivka 1+ goals
73%
Kolos Kovalivka 2+ goals
38%
Kolos Kovalivka 3+ goals
15%
Minai 1+ goals
56%
Minai 2+ goals
19%
Minai 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kolos Kovalivka (draw refunded)
68%
Minai (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolos Kovalivka at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.02 · 100 matches

Minai away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.72 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.93 + Minai defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.32

Minai attack 0.60 + Kolos Kovalivka defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kolos Kovalivka scores more
49%
level
28%
Minai scores more
23%

Kolos Kovalivka at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kolos Kovalivka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Kolos Kovalivka 2–1 Minai

Kolos Kovalivka beat Minai 2-1 in Premier League on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Kovalivka in Kovalivka.