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Minai vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — Persha Liga 2019

Minai
Minai
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
9/11/2024Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 6Stadion Mynai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Minai40%
×Draw30%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minai
1.16
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0.96

Minai creates 21% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 36 away

creates per match

Minai
1.50
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.08

allows per match

Minai
0.83
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0.81

finishing

Minai+0.00on par
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minai ↓

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Minai or draw
70%
Minai or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
70%
Draw or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
60%

Winning margin

Minai wins by 2+
17%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Minai 1+ goals
69%
Minai 2+ goals
32%
Minai 3+ goals
11%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals
62%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals
25%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Minai (draw refunded)
57%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minai at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.83 · 24 matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.81 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minai attack 1.50 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.16

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.08 + Minai defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Minai scores more
40%
level
30%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more
30%

Minai at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Minai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Minai 0–0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Minai and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi drew 0-0 in Persha Liga on September 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Mynai in Mynai.