Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3–3 Minai: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Epitsentr DunayivtsiExpected goals in this matchMinai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.02

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.52

Minai

1.02

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi creates 49% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 53 away

1.31

creates per match

0.60

1.44

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.31

Minai

0.60

allows per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.44

Minai

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par

Minai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ↓

Minai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or draw

75%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Minai

74%

Draw or Minai

51%

Winning margin

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+

25%

Minai wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals

78%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals

45%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals

20%

Minai 1+ goals

64%

Minai 2+ goals

27%

Minai 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)

66%

Minai (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Minai away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.72 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.31 + Minai defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.52

Minai attack 0.60 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more

49%

level

26%

Minai scores more

25%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

M. Myronyuk↳ V. Moroz

19'

V. Vakula

25'

A. Bezhenar

46'

N. Vorobchak← A. Remenyak

52'

V. Dvorovenko

57'

D. Prikhna

59'

Y. Gunichev← Y. Shalfeev

61'

A. Lipovuz← V. Ravlyk

61'

I. Bendera← I. Bendera

66'

I. Bendera↳ V. Krystin

68'

Y. Kysil← Y. Kysil

70'

V. Krystin

77'

D. Kravchuk↳ M. Myronyuk

80'

V. Vakula← I. Demydenko

80'

I. Matyushenko← Y. Skyba

85'

M. Myronyuk

86'

O. Zhmuyda← G. Savchuk

86'

A. Bezhenar← M. Polyulyakh

87'

A. Remenyak

90+9'

S. Krystin← O. Klymets

120+1'

I. DemydenkoPenalty

120+1'

E. ZaporozhetsPenalty

120+2'

A. RemenyakPenalty

120+2'

V. RavlykMissed penalty

120+3'

T. DmytrukPenalty

120+3'

D. KravchukPenalty

120+4'

T. KorablinPenalty

120+4'

O. KlymetsPenalty

120+5'

Y. KysilPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff