Minai 1–3 Dynamo Kyiv: Result & Stats

Minai

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Dynamo Kyiv

T. Korablin 48'

N. Voloshyn 86'

D. Niemchaninov 28' (OG)

V. Buialskyi 4'

4/17/2024

Premier League · Round 16Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Minai19%

×Draw23%

Dynamo Kyiv59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MinaiExpected goals in this matchDynamo Kyiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.82

Minai

0.91

Dynamo Kyiv

1.82

Dynamo Kyiv creates 100% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 98 away

0.87

creates per match

2.27

1.38

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Minai

0.87

Dynamo Kyiv

2.27

allows per match

Minai

1.38

Dynamo Kyiv

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minai+0.00on par

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minai ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Minai or draw

41%

Minai or Dynamo Kyiv

77%

Draw or Dynamo Kyiv

81%

Winning margin

Minai wins by 2+

6%

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Minai 1+ goals

60%

Minai 2+ goals

23%

Minai 3+ goals

6%

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

84%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

54%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Minai (draw refunded)

24%

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minai at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.95 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minai attack 0.87 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.27 + Minai defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Minai scores more

19%

level

23%

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

59%

Dynamo Kyiv at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

V. Buialskyi↳ V. Vanat

28'

D. NiemchaninovOwn goal

46'

A. Remeniak← K. Popov

46'

D. Ustymenko← I. Demydenko

46'

M. Shaparenko← V. Kabaiev

48'

T. Korablin↳ V. Vakula

56'

A. Yarmolenko

60'

T. Dmytruk

61'

S. Diallo← A. Yarmolenko

61'

V. Shepeliev← V. Buialskyi

66'

V. Semotiuk← V. Vitenchuk

75'

V. Vanat

86'

N. Voloshyn↳ V. Dubinchak

87'

Y. Hunichev← T. Korablin

89'

S. Korniichuk← V. Vakula

89'

M. Ponomarenko← V. Vanat

90+1'

Y. Kysil

Statistics

MinaiDynamo

Overview

0Corners0

Discipline

0Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0