Milton Keynes Dons W 0–2 Ipswich Town W

Milton Keynes Dons W

0 – 2

Ipswich Town W

11/14/2021

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundWillen Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons W32%

×Draw19%

Ipswich Town W50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes Dons WExpected goals in this matchIpswich Town W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

2.67

Milton Keynes Dons W

2.13

Ipswich Town W

2.67

Ipswich Town W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

2.75

creates per match

3.58

1.75

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons W

2.75

Ipswich Town W

3.58

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons W

1.75

Ipswich Town W

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons W+0.00on par

Ipswich Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons W ↓

Ipswich Town W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–36%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons W or draw

50%

Milton Keynes Dons W or Ipswich Town W

81%

Draw or Ipswich Town W

68%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons W wins by 2+

17%

Ipswich Town W wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons W 1+ goals

88%

Milton Keynes Dons W 2+ goals

63%

Milton Keynes Dons W 3+ goals

35%

Ipswich Town W 1+ goals

93%

Ipswich Town W 2+ goals

74%

Ipswich Town W 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons W (draw refunded)

39%

Ipswich Town W (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons W at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Ipswich Town W away — creates 3.58, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons W attack 2.75 + Ipswich Town W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Ipswich Town W attack 3.58 + Milton Keynes Dons W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Milton Keynes Dons W scores more

32%

level

19%

Ipswich Town W scores more

50%

Ipswich Town W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ipswich Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff