Ipswich Town W 12–0 Milton Keynes Dons W

Ipswich Town W

12 – 0

Milton Keynes Dons W

11/3/2024

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundThe Martello Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ipswich Town W83%

×Draw10%

Milton Keynes Dons W7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ipswich Town WExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.67

1.01

Ipswich Town W

3.67

Milton Keynes Dons W

1.01

Ipswich Town W creates 263% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

3.54

creates per match

1.40

0.62

allows per match

3.80

creates per match

Ipswich Town W

3.54

Milton Keynes Dons W

1.40

allows per match

Ipswich Town W

0.62

Milton Keynes Dons W

3.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ipswich Town W+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich Town W ↓

Milton Keynes Dons W →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–08%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Ipswich Town W or draw

93%

Ipswich Town W or Milton Keynes Dons W

90%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons W

17%

Winning margin

Ipswich Town W wins by 2+

67%

Milton Keynes Dons W wins by 2+

Team goals

Ipswich Town W 1+ goals

97%

Ipswich Town W 2+ goals

87%

Ipswich Town W 3+ goals

68%

Milton Keynes Dons W 1+ goals

64%

Milton Keynes Dons W 2+ goals

27%

Milton Keynes Dons W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ipswich Town W (draw refunded)

93%

Milton Keynes Dons W (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ipswich Town W at home — creates 3.54, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Milton Keynes Dons W away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich Town W attack 3.54 + Milton Keynes Dons W defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 3.67

Milton Keynes Dons W attack 1.40 + Ipswich Town W defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 83%?"

Ipswich Town W scores more

83%

level

10%

Milton Keynes Dons W scores more

Ipswich Town W at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Ipswich Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff