Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Milton Keynes Dons vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tranmere
Tranmere
M. Eisa 7'
8/12/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 2Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons50%
×Draw26%
Tranmere25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milton Keynes Dons
1.54
Tranmere
1.00

Milton Keynes Dons creates 54% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 163 away

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.61
Tranmere
1.03

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons
0.98
Tranmere
1.48

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par
Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw
75%
Milton Keynes Dons or Tranmere
74%
Draw or Tranmere
50%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
26%
Tranmere wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
79%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
45%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
20%
Tranmere 1+ goals
63%
Tranmere 2+ goals
26%
Tranmere 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
67%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.98 · 93 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.48 · 163 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.61 + Tranmere defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.54

Tranmere attack 1.03 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more
50%
level
26%
Tranmere scores more
25%

Milton Keynes Dons at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
J. TurnbullTranmereTranmere · D
7.7

Match Events

7'
M. Eisa↳ A. Gilbey
27'
Tom Davies
37'
Mohamed Eisa
46'
K. Dennis← P. Lewis
46'
L. O'Connor← R. McAlear
46'
C. Jennings← J. Hawkes
59'
S. Taylor← H. Saunders
64'
A. Hunter← J. Leko
77'
Craig MacGillivray
85'
P. Scholtz← M. Eisa

Possession

50%Milton

Shots

7Milton

Pass accuracy

50%Milton

Statistics

MiltonTranmere
Overview
50%Possession50%
7Total Shots16
2Corners11
8Fouls12
Shots
7Total Shots16
2On Target3
3Off Target9
2Blocked4
4Inside Box12
3Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
445Total Passes427
299Accurate Passes280
67%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides6

League Two: Milton Keynes Dons 1–0 Tranmere

Milton Keynes Dons beat Tranmere 1-0 in League Two on August 12, 2023.

Goals: M. Eisa (7').

Milton Keynes Dons controlled possession (50%) and registered 7 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stadium mk in Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire.