Milton Keynes Dons 2–1 Fleetwood Town

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fleetwood Town

A. Nemane 68'

N. Mendez-Laing 37' (pen)

C. Evans 72'

11/29/2025

League Two · Round 18Stadium MK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons46%

×Draw26%

Fleetwood Town28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.06

Milton Keynes Dons

1.45

Fleetwood Town

1.06

Milton Keynes Dons creates 37% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 27 away

1.68

creates per match

1.11

1.00

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.68

Fleetwood Town

1.11

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.00

Fleetwood Town

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

72%

Milton Keynes Dons or Fleetwood Town

74%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

54%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

23%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

77%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

42%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

18%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

65%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

29%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

62%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.00 · 56 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.68 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.45

Fleetwood Town attack 1.11 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

46%

level

26%

Fleetwood Town scores more

28%

Milton Keynes Dons at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

N. Mendez-Laing

Milton Keynes Dons · F

8.0

Match Events

37'

N. Mendez-LaingPenalty

56'

Marvin Ekpiteta

61'

Z. Medley← E. Ennis

61'

R. Graydon← R. Coughlan

62'

Nathaniel Méndez-Laing

68'

A. Nemane

70'

G. Jones← A. Nemane

70'

A. Collins← N. Mendez-Laing

70'

E. Bonds← M. Virtue-Thick

70'

C. Evans← W. Davies

72'

C. Evans↳ R. Graydon

82'

J. Mellish← J. Tomlinson

85'

W. Collar← K. Thompson-Sommers

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiltonFleetwood

Overview

52%Possession48%

19Total Shots8

2.45Expected Goals (xG)0.35

6Corners2

13Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots8

5On Target4

6Off Target2

8Blocked2

13Inside Box3

6Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

340Total Passes333

231Accurate Passes222

68%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls14

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0