Fleetwood Town 1–1 Milton Keynes Dons

Fleetwood Town

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Milton Keynes Dons

R. Coughlan 24'

C. Paterson 37'

5/2/2026

League Two · Round 46Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Fleetwood Town37%

×Draw25%

Milton Keynes Dons39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.50

Fleetwood Town

1.46

Milton Keynes Dons

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 49 away

1.42

creates per match

1.65

1.35

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.42

Milton Keynes Dons

1.65

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

1.35

Milton Keynes Dons

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

61%

Fleetwood Town or Milton Keynes Dons

75%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

63%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

17%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

77%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

43%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

18%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

78%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

44%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

49%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.42 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.65 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

37%

level

25%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

39%

Milton Keynes Dons at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

E. Ennis

Fleetwood Town · M

7.9

Match Events

24'

R. Coughlan↳ J. Bolton

37'

C. Paterson↳ B. Wiles

61'

A. Nemane← G. Jones

61'

R. Hepburn-Murphy← N. Mendez-Laing

67'

A. Collins← C. Nelson

74'

R. Cirino← J. Bolton

82'

D. Crowley← L. Kelly

82'

L. Offord← J. Sanders

83'

O. Devonport← W. Davies

83'

C. McLean← M. Helm

90'

G. Morrison← R. Coughlan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodMilton

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots15

5Corners3

7Fouls6

Shots

8Total Shots15

3On Target4

4Off Target9

1Blocked2

6Inside Box11

2Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

338Total Passes447

217Accurate Passes337

64%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls6

1Offsides0