Milton Keynes Dons 1–2 Fleetwood Town

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Fleetwood Town

W. O'Hora 52'

D. Batty 90'

C. Johnston 72'

12/10/2022

League One · Round 21Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons42%

×Draw27%

Fleetwood Town32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.16

Milton Keynes Dons

1.37

Fleetwood Town

1.16

Milton Keynes Dons creates 18% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 134 away

1.31

creates per match

1.18

1.14

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.31

Fleetwood Town

1.18

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.14

Fleetwood Town

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

68%

Milton Keynes Dons or Fleetwood Town

73%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

58%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

19%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

75%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

40%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

16%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

69%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

32%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

57%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 93 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.31 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Fleetwood Town attack 1.18 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

42%

level

27%

Fleetwood Town scores more

32%

Milton Keynes Dons at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Lynch

Fleetwood Town · G

7.5

Match Events

52'

W. O'Hora↳ M. Eisa

57'

C. Hayes← G. Garner

57'

B. Sarpong-Wiredu← H. Holgate

61'

B. Johnson← C. Grant

69'

Tennai Watson

70'

Jay Lynch

72'

C. Johnston↳ C. Hayes

74'

D. Batty← P. Omochere

77'

H. Lawrence← L. Barry

77'

M. Dennis← M. Eisa

86'

W. Grigg← D. Devoy

86'

E. Robson← J. McEachran

87'

D. Andrew← C. Johnston

87'

J. Garner← Carlos Gomes

90'

D. Batty↳ B. Sarpong-Wiredu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiltonFleetwood

Overview

56%Possession44%

17Total Shots7

6Corners2

10Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots7

6On Target2

6Off Target2

5Blocked3

13Inside Box4

4Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

472Total Passes374

370Accurate Passes277

78%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls15

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3